From Bread Basket to...Fuel Tank?
Let's begin by first considering liquid fuels. The product that is currently getting all the attention is ethanol. Ethanol, at the present time, is being produced by fermentation, which uses the sugar found in seeds such as corn and barley, or in plants such as sugarcane. In the future, however, the expectation is that ethanol will be produced by cellulosic technology, which can use a wide range of biomass including wood chips and switch grass. While cellulosic technology is still being developed for commercial scale production, the belief is that it will eventually come to dominate fermentation technology.
One reason for this dominance will be the ability to use a wide range of biomass that is cheaper to produce than the feedstock required for fermentation. Seeds such as wheat and barley are relatively expensive to produce because the biomass output per acre is so small. In contrast, plants such as hybrid poplar, willow or switchgrass can produce a relatively large amount of biomass per acre. While corn may be able to remain a feedstock for fermentation because of its very large yield per acre, crops such as wheat and barley will almost certainly be pushed aside by hybrid poplar and willow. Since corn does not grow particularly well on the Canadian Prairies, while hybrid poplar or willow do (at least in some parts), cellulosic technology is likely to be particularly dominant in this region.
Cellulosic technologies also offer lower life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and the potential to more economically utilize marginal lands for valuable feedstock production.
Moving to solid biofuels, the source for the material needed for direct burning or gasification is likely to also come from plants that produce large amounts of biomass. Once again crops such as switchgrass, willow or hybrid poplar are likely to be the most efficient feedstock.
So, if everything points toward biomass as the important feedstock for future biofuels production, what does this mean for the Prairies and its producers? Two inferences can be made. First, biofuels production from biomass will only be economical if there is access to large volumes of biomass. For this to occur, it is unlikely that the arable lands of the Canadian Prairies will be able to produce the quantities required. Instead, if it is to be found at all, the land suitable for the type of high-foliage growth required (i.e., something that will grow fast and plentiful, like a weed) tends to be located on the forest fringe in the northern Prairie region, where there is a higher annual rainfall and soil conditions are appropriate for this type of growth.
Second, since land in the southern part of the Prairies does not share these attributes, economical biomass production in this area is unlikely. However, this land can continue to produce high-quality food grain, oilseeds and pulses - the price for which will likely be high given the worldwide demand for land to produce biomass.
The implication of this analysis is that a policy direction different from that taken in the rest of the world may be desirable for the Canadian Prairies. Our traditional crop growing region is likely best suited for growing food and feed crops, while the more marginal forest fringe area is likely best suited for growing the large amounts of biomass required for biofuels - be they liquid or solid. Since crop prices are likely to be relatively high, Prairie producers might be able to do well financially by growing the traditional crops (plus the new ones that come along) for food and feed.
To date, significant energy and effort has been put in place to point the Canadian industry in the direction of the rest of the world's leaders in biofuels production - down the path of developing a grain-based ethanol industry. Despite these efforts, Canada seems to be lagging behind. Perhaps our reluctance to join the rest of the world in grain-based ethanol production is actually an advantage, since it allows us to more easily adopt a much different policy to biofuels than we have pursued up until now.
While I agree that grain based ethanol production will not compete with corn based ethanol, the authors place too much hope in cellulose.
The commercialization of cellulosic ethanol is a significant challenge that seems to be perpetually 5 years away from commercialization. The large sugar cane ethanol plants in in Brazil have mountains of cellulosic crushed sugarcane stocks right next to some of largest and most economic, and most experienced ethanol plants in the world. Despite considerable research over long periods of time, the Brazilians have been unsuccessful in finding economic ways of converting this waste material sitting right at a plant into ethanol.
I would suggest that it is a much larger scientific and economic leap to go from the Brazilian situation, to a situation where it was economic to take up crop land to grow cellulose and transport it to new dedicated plants. So I don't think we will see commercial cellulosic ethanol plants any time soon in our forest fringe.
In the mean time, I am confident the higher grain prices will cause a reduction in the cellulose in the forest fringe as land is cleared for grain production.
I agree with Murray and Lynette that willow and hybrid poplar have potential as a biomass feedstock whether for pellets or conversion to ethanol. We are currently growing over 30 clones of willow in SK to observe their potential for producing biomass with the hopes of finding some that will perform well here. I agree with Richard that cellulosic conversion may be years away (although I hear good things are happening)but there are other processes being developed as well to convert biomass to fuels. My question for all of you and its one that I get asked often - what are the economics of growing willow vs grain crops. The planting costs initially are large due to the planting material but if you can then harvest this material on 3 year cycles for 7 rotations and have minimal fertilizer and herbicides inputs - would this not fair well in the long term economically compared to grains. Is it possible to determine the economics for these woody crops in these types of systems? How can we facilitate to see this happen?
The first two comments to this entry talk about how cellulosic ethanol production is perpetually five years away from commercialization, although Ken does allude to hearing "good things are happening". In last week's Western Producer there was an article by Sean Pratt ("Straw-based ethanol company chooses Sask." March 20, 2008) that caught the KIS Executive's attention. To date, Iogen has been tweaking its cellulosic ethanol demonstration plant in Ottawa, but has recently applied for federal funding (under the new NexGen Biofuel Fund) to build a cellulosic ethanol facility near Birch Hills, SK. (25 minutes SE of Prince Albert) ( Iogen Press Release 14 March 2008). If funding is approved, Iogen will be the first successful applicant under the program, and plant construction would start in 2009 with production beginning in 2011. Iogen is partnering with Shell and Goldman Sachs Group on this investment; Shell and Iogen have partnered on cellulosic development since 2002 and with Goldman Sachs Group since 2006.
While many previous Saskatchewan initiatives in biofuel have lost momentum at the fund development stage, it seems commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol production is a due diligence review away from reality. It is interesting to note that since 2001, the town of Nipawin has been promoting a biomass ethanol plant that would use straw and wood waste. However, Iogen VP Jeff Passmore stated in the WP article that the Birch Hills plant will use straw as its feedstock. This still raises the question about how to obtain the amount of biomass required to make the plant viable, and whether or not the use of wood residue and fast-growing tree species will replace straw as the technology advances.