Commentary Reflection - Part II
Comment to the post titled "From Bread Basket to...Fuel Tank?"
In this entry Murray and Lynette discuss how the Canadian Prairies will not be the biomass providers when solid fuels and cellulosic liquid fuels gain full momentum. The authors argue that the Prairies' lag in grain-based ethanol production may actually put us at an advantage for second-generation biofuels. They suggest that Saskatchewan cropland should continue to produce high-quality food grain, oilseeds and pulses and that the forest fringe should be used to produce woody crops for cellulosic production. Richard Gray posted a comment that questions the authors' expectations for cellulosic ethanol. He states: "The commercialization of cellulosic ethanol is a significant challenge that seems to be perpetually 5 years away from commercialization...I don't think we will see commercial cellulose ethanol plants any time soon in our forest fringe."
Ken Van Rees agrees with Murray and Lynette's inferences about hybrid poplar's potential for use as biomass in fuel production and references some research that he has been involved with for fast-growing tree species. The element he would like to see addressed is the economics of woody crops versus grain crops for ethanol production.
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Comment to
the post titled "Competitive
Advantage Does Not Lie with Commodity Beef"
In her entry Jill Hobbs describes how changing global factors are leading Canada's beef industry away from commodity beef production and towards branded beef such as the Albertan-led Canada Gold Beef program. Red Williams commented that Jill has summarized the situation well, but should not forget that Canada carries some advantage with its vast land base and plentiful crop residue for aftermath grazing. He also feels that Canada produces high quality beef in comparison with its competitors - Brazil, Argentina, Australia and the United States.
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Comment to the post titled "Volatility, Uncertainty, and..."
In this entry Murray Fulton discusses how biofuel development is changing the dynamics of grain price determination; grain prices are now likely to be linked to geopolitical events and the price of oil. He expects that we will see stock holding and hedging uncertainty, as well as political stability issues in certain regions of the world, The increased interdependence between grain and oil will require a reworking of industry strategies. Glen Annand offers a different perspective; he believes price fluctuations have more to do with production shortages due to unfavorable weather in parts of the world than with biofuel development. He wants to see innovation - and good weather - drive Canada to its full potential in food and fuel production. Political meddling, in Glen's view, is not what is needed as it just ends up hindering rather than helping the agriculture sector.
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The real opportunities lie in the development of renewable energy, renewable home heating fuels through net metering. Unlike many jurisdictions, Saskatchewan in particular have the capacity to net meter both renewable energy (solar, wind, biomass conversion) as well as home heating fuel (clean methane).
The provincial crown utility Sask Power has recently introduced a net metering program in SK and are fielding hundreds of calls from producers. Renewable power can be generated at 7 cents/Kwh and Sask Power charges 9.
I wonder if Richard Gray and Murray Fulton can put their substantial skills to a question that troubles me with respect to the food-fuel debate that seems to have no end, but does not lack in passion. The market speculators surged into the grain markets with the report of a further drop in the wheat carry-over. That is not insufficient grain to meet this years demands, but rather a year over year drop that has been occurring gradually over about eight years. Prices spiked to levels unrelated to normal market responses. This led to contrary actions around the world, and lo the rice market goes crazy. Global farmers are scrambling to respond with seeding plans to a market that is not any longer reliable. Then the activist press climbs on board with threats of world food shortages. My problem is that I can't be sure whether there is a food supply crisis, there is an over reaction about to happen in acreages seeded to wheat, beans, corn and etc., that the US has overshot on corn for ethanol, or whether we just have a market that has lost its way?